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The Exiled · 09.09.2021., 19:57

ASML is the key to Intel’s resurrection just like ASML helped TSMC beat Intel

Citiraj:

If Intel has any hope of recapturing the lead in the Moore’s Law race from TSMC then it desperately needs ASML’s help. Right now TSMC is miles ahead of Intel in EUV tool count and experience which is the key to advanced technology nodes. If both TSMC and Intel buy tools and technology at an equal rate, TSMC will stay ahead. The only other way for Intel to catch TSMC is for TSMC to fall on its own sword, much as Intel did, but we don’t see that happening any time soon. Back when ASML was struggling with EUV, making slow progress on a questionable technology, they were looking for an early adopter to take the plunge and convince the industry that EUV was real. ASML got into a room with TSMC management and cut a deal and TSMC went from an EUV non-believer to a full on convert virtually over night. TSMC went from “never EUV” to its biggest customer and user (financed by Apple). The rest is history. Its likely that TSMC may have pulled ahead without EUV but EUV really allowed TSMC to accelerate away from Intel and Samsung and create a huge Moore’s Law lead that exists today.

Obviously there was some behind the scenes discussion between ASML & Intel as Intel came out with a full throated support of high-NA EUV technology. If ASML anoints Intel as the high-NA EUV champion in exchange for its commitment and Intel gets preferential access to tools over TSMC as its reward, that could be the difference to get Intel back in the Moore’s Law game ahead of TSMC. Intel of course has to do a lot of other things right, such as new transistor design and vertically stacked transistors but little of that will matter if they can’t get back in the Moore’s Law game with leading edge litho. Back in 2012 ASML was struggling with EUV and needed some financial help to complete the technology and show support of customers. It would seem that now the shoe is on the other foot. ASML is on fire and Intel is in need of help. ASML has a 50% higher market cap than Intel.

Intel has a lot to do, a lot to prove and a lot of money to spend to recapture the lead in semiconductors. In short, Intel needs help. Maybe ASML should invest in Intel much as Intel invested in ASML when the chips were down. If ASML were to invest a similar amount in Intel, it would be enough cash to pay for both planned foundries in Arizona and then some. With enough left over for Intel to buy some expensive high-NA tools. This would certainly be better than a US government bailout of Intel’s self inflicted problems which would benefit investors rather than tapping taxpayers. Intel would certainly rather take the “free money” from the government. Its a nice dream but we doubt that Samsung & TSMC would be happy with ASML investing in Intel.

Citiraj:

In its early years, Intel declined a bid to invest in TSMC, probably not thinking contract chip making would have a future, Chang disclosed. Founded in Taiwan in 1987 by Morris Chang, TSMC was the world's first dedicated semiconductor foundry and has long been the leading company in its field. Morris Chang, the founder and chairman of TSMC, successfully convinced Philips to invest in TSMC and use its factories to manufacture Philips' chips, making the European giant an original investor and early customer. Philips' name was just as important as its money to TSMC. Adding Philips to the list of TSMC investors helped convince government officials in Taiwan, other investors and other potential customers to work with and invest in TSMC early on. In 1984, Philips split off its activities on the field of photolithographic integrated circuit production equipment, the so-called wafer steppers, into a joint venture with ASM International, located in Veldhoven under the name ASML. Over the years, this new company has evolved into the world's leading manufacturer of chip production machines at the expense of competitors like Nikon and Canon.

Izvor: SemiWiki