Nadolazeći AMD socketi, ploče i procesori

[Manuel Calavera]

Susquehanna says AMD (NASDAQ:AMD) is picking up market share in desktops and laptops with Ryzen Mobile showing “signs of life.”

Nego kad smo već kod toga već neko vrijeme viđam neke laptope (2500-3600kn) sa ryzenima koji čak imaju smisla tj. koji su isplativi. Ne sjećam se da sam ikad vidio neki laptop sa AMD-ovim cpu da je isplativ, te nikad nisam nikome preporučio laptop s istim. No očito se i to malo pomaklo s mrtve točke, do sada nije bilo nekog uspjeha sa mobilnim ryzenima

[Sn4k3]

Kad vec spominjes mobilne Ryzene, nedavno sam dvojici kolega preporucija laptope sa ryzen 5 2400U. Ukratko, oba su prezadovoljna. Osobno sam ugodno iznenadjen brzinom izvodjenja svakodnevnih zadaca, 4c/8t u kombinaciji sa m.2 ssd-om je pun pogodak. Generalno multitasking u usporedbi sa morem dual core i3-ca i i5-ica (koji su mi prosli kroz ruke) je jako dobar, pogotovo kad se uzme u obzir da govorim o laptopima vrijednosti od 3500-3900kn (ovisno o kolicini rama).

[Manuel Calavera]

Ovi prebacili i 32$. Jbte optimistične prognoze su bile 20$ do kraja godine.


Čitam manuscript konferencije pred Dojč bankom nebi li našao nešto pametno, uglavnom vidi se da su potpuno u computingu


Devinder Kumar:

I think from my standpoint, we obviously focus on high performance computing.

...

And I think the focus and the execution this time is very different than what you've talked about in the Shanghai and Barcelona days, because at that time maybe we were trying to do too many things for too many people and now it’s very focused on high performance computing.

Node

Ross Seymore
You mentioned a little bit about the process technology, so why don’t we check that box as well. Last week or the week before, we saw global foundries throwing the towel on the 7-nanometer node. Talk a little bit about, holistically, your view on how AMD uses different foundries and what that change means via your WSA?

Devinder Kumar
Yes. So if you go back to the context, and I know we talked about in the 2016 timeframe. When we laid out the multigenerational roadmap in terms of server, data center, commercial, we talked about having access to leading edge process technology. In 2016, we modified the WSA with GlobalFoundries and that gave us the flexibility in terms of having access to leading edge process technology. If our products are on time, we want to make sure that process technology was not a constraint in terms of introducing the products to the customers. And that’s exactly what the 2016 modification was about. As it turns out, it played out. Today, as we sit here, TSMC has done a very good job with execution on the 7-nanometer technology node.

epyc

We introduced a product in the middle part of 2017. We've been tracking it against Opteron just like everybody was doing. And it's pretty much along the same track in terms of how you see the customers, how you make some pilot production and then how they make significant investment to go ahead and by volume product. And based on that, we're targeting the mid single digit market share; IDC's data is about 20 million units, 16 billion large market then; and we are targeting to get to mid-single-digit by existing 2018 and then four to six quarters up to that; on the strength of the Rome product, which is on 7 nanometers to get to double digit market share, four to six quarters after the hit the single digits target.

...

I think time will tell. I think the next few quarters, next year, for example, next quarter's quarter is going to be very interesting; we have the product; we have the process technology; we are competing our customers; and we see then OEMs are very excited about the product that we have in their hands; and hitting the first milestone, as we have pointed out the mid single digit is going to be important; and the next target very quickly becomes double digit 10% market share for the six quarters after that; and we’ll take it from there. It’s a journey. I mean, in the upfront days as you know very well, we were able to get better than 25% market share. But it took about three years, 3.5 years, to get there. It wasn’t overnight even though we had the product. And I think in playing out as we expected that this thing is something that builds momentum overtime and that’s the way we are looking at it.

gpu rant:

Ross Seymore
So why don’t we switch gears over to the C%G side, the computing and graphics side of the business. In the first half of this year, it was up I believe about 80% year-over-year, revenue wise. Talk a little bit about the drivers of that growth between the C&G. I know you guys don’t overtly split those out. If you wanted to you could and I’m sure would be very happy to hear it. But just talk about which side is growing faster and what the drivers of that growth?

Devinder Kumar
I think we stepped back and go back a year ago, in the second half of 2017 on the graphics side, Q3, Q4, Q1 and Q2 of this year. On the graphics piece of it, there was the benefit from the Blockchain of revenue; and we were very clear in laying out this year for Q1 and Q2, Q1 approximately 10% of total aggregate revenue for the Company coming from the Blockchain; Q2 about 6% of the revenue coming from that; but in Q3, as we gave our guidance for Q3, we said is de minimis or there is no plan just the way the market dynamics have moved; and we guided Q3 assuming almost no revenue coming from the Blockchain piece of it; and that’s exactly how it's playing off. Future is hard to tell so graphics gets impacted by that.

As you look from the first half to the second half, graphics going to be down by definition because the Blockchain is there and the first half and not there in the second half. However, on the gaming side of it, we've been able to increase market share below 30% going up to, 33%, 34%, which we feel good about and we continue to compete in that area. But on the Ryzen piece of it, which is the client business of it. In Q2, we had about 60% of our client revenue coming from Ryzen and continue to get more, because in the early part of this year, we also introduced a notebook product because we started with desktop in the channel desktop to the OEM and now we have the notebook product. And for the first time in probably forever, all three major OEMs have enterprise class notebooks that we are going to be seen coming out in the second half of 2018.

We're seeing a very good traction from a back-to-school standpoint and now the holiday season is upon us, including the benefit they're getting from commercial notebooks that we had not played in previously, because we just didn’t have the product to compete across the spec. And I think on the client business side of it, that’s where the benefit comes in. And then on the graphic side of it, the one area we haven’t talked about is on the data center space. We had some revenue MI25 product; we have the 7-nanometer GPU; Vega product targeted for the data center coming out later this year; and that should benefit the graphics business. So that we can also increase the revenue in that area, which today we are almost not much revenue in that area and that should be an area for growth for us in the graphic space.
You're right we don’t spread it out too much. But as I look at it from the first half to second half, if you look at the CG segment, graphics is very strong in the first half, weaker in the second half from an overall revenue standpoint. And from a client standpoint first half to second half, there’s growth in the revenue and that’s what's helping that segment not just grow year-over-year significantly but also deliver operating margins that last quarter if you look at it, where it's double digit operating margin, which we haven’t done for that segment in a long-long time.

Ross Seymore
In your second quarter 10-Q, you talked I believe pricing in the first half being up roughly 50%. And I think you said Radeon was, in the graphic side, was the primary uplift, offset partially by the desktop pricing dropping. So if we stick on the graphic side of the equation and this is going to go back a little bit to the crypto part. Do you believe that the shortages created by crypto created an artificial ASP increase or is that increase in the ASP is mix driven, because of introducing the Radeon side of the equation?

Devinder Kumar
I wouldn't say artificial. What happens is obviously the demand for graphics products, combination of gaming and Blockchain, was very strong and that always helps from an ASP standpoint. But if I look underlying in the gaming business alone, putting aside Blockchain, which is much harder to predict because of the dynamics of that market, we are seeing very good traction from an overall ASP standpoint, because of the new products we have introduced. Our mix in product, even on the gaming side of the graphics side, continues to go up because we have introduced more products, newer products and the newer products command higher ASPs, in particular the Vega part that we have put out. And there’s more to come as we introduce the Vega part for the data center and then following that we will have more products on 7-nanometers on the non-data center, the gaming piece of it and that should help ASPs overall.

Ross Seymore
Last question on the graphic side of the C&G. How do you view the competitive environment? Now that Nvidia has Turing out, it seems like they would at the very least, introduce a new high price point but push the prices down for their last generation chips. And that might be more of a direct competitive comparison for you/ Are you seeing any changes in the competitive dynamic?

Devinder Kumar
The view is, first of all, the introduction of the product, the timing is very interesting. I think both companies are seeing elevated levels of graphics inventory in the channel space. We need to work through that over the next one or two quarters. And then obviously the ASPs for the new product that comes is very high. And I think the volume -- only when you get to the volume skews is they're going to be a benefit from a new product standpoint. We continue to have a roadmap in terms of introducing the 7-nanometer GPU for the data center, because that’s where the largest opportunity is for us from revenue and from the profit standpoint, and we’ll come out with the product from the competitive standpoint. I feel pretty good from a competitive standpoint in the graphics space. We have gained market share, overall, over the last 12 months or so, going below 30% or 33% and we'll continue to be comparative as we look forward from here.

Ross Seymore
And the absolute last question on the graphics side, 7 nanometer Vega coming to the data center side of it, you've talk about that before at the end of this year. When should we expect 7 nanometer to occur on the more traditional gaming…

Devinder Kumar
We haven’t missed that piece. I think, if you look at it from what we have stated, we have 7 nanometer data center GPU launching later this year; we are sampling the 700 CPU this second half of ’18 and then launching in 2019; after that, we'll have the client piece of it; we haven’t been specific about the timing; and graphics will be coming out later than these products.

ryzen i intelov manjak kapaciteta;

Ross Seymore
What in the computing side are you seeing as far as any benefit to you from shortages from your competition? There has been a number of news reports over the last few weeks and even few months if you've dug hard enough about potential shortages, the 14-nanometer parts from Intel. Are you seeing any benefits from that?

Devinder Kumar
I think that there is some things going on with that, but it's not an immediate impact. Customers when they see it, they have to make decisions about what they want to do with the shortage situations. And then if they select AMD to supply the product, it takes time. I think if there is a shortage situation, it will benefit us but it's not like it's an immediate impact, because it takes a while for the supply chain to catch up for the decisions they are making. So yes, if there are shortages we'll definitely benefit from that, because we are not seeing shortages from 14-nanometer standpoint and we're ready to supply customers that may not be able to get the product from our competitor.

Uglavnom datacentar im je na prvom mjestu, vidi se da su im gaming gpu tamo negdje iza svega

[Odinarius]

Sad je pitanje da li pod gaming gpu u kasnoj 2019 misle na navi ili high end vegu. Tekst je dovoljno ambigous da može biti oboje.

[Manuel Calavera]

Gotovo sigurno misli na Navi, ali da, izgleda kao da se može odnosit i na gaming vegu 20

[Gigi1]

Gaming vega20 nema nekog smisla jer hbm nije napredovao od v10 do v20 po pitanju propusnosti sto je glavna kocnica vege(uz rasterizaciju), a stackanje vise hbm modula da se poveca propusnost je financijski upitno za gaming trziste. Eventualno ako su radili neke prinake na mem.kontroleru/sabirnici pa na taj nacin povecali propusnost bez da previse utjece na cijenu

Vega je ionak arch zamisljen primarno za comute...ugl. ako izbace gaming vegu20 to ce prvenstveno biti zbog losijeg yielda odnosno br.defekata koje nece uspjet nagurat u MI produkte pa ce ih se pokusat rijesiti na gaming marketu.

[Manuel Calavera]

Alleged AMD EPYC ‘Rome’ 7nm Based 64 Core Processor Performance Leaks Out – Scores an Incredible 12,500 Points in Cinebench Multi-Tasking Benchmark

[Wozniak jR.]

Covjece, ne mogu docekati Ryzen 3000 seriju.
Skoro sam opalio upgrade na 2600X, no moj 8350 ce se morati jos malo strpiti prije mirovine ;D

[Dottore]

Razmišljam da ubodem jeftiniji 1600x dok ne dođe nova generacija 3700x (pretpostavljam launch may 2019). Nadam se da će biti kompatibilan pločom B450

Отправлено через SM-N950FD

[Smartic]

Dobar deal je trenutno 1600X(1200 i kusur), ali probaj prvo vidjeti imaju li u Telebitu 2600 za 1345kn. B450/AM4 ploče će, po svemu sudeći, podržavati još minimalno 2 nadolazeće generacije.

[Manuel Calavera]

Nešto sam skeptičan da će zen 2 doći u 3-4 mjesecu ovaj puta. Prvi (i najmanje bitan) razlog je ako potraje nestašica intela - neće se žurit, pogotovo ako prethodno naštancaju više 2xxx serije nego što su planirali. Drugi razlog je što je službeno više puta rečeno da prvo izlazi vega 20 ove godine na 7nm, pa epyc (milan) na 7nm, a onda "poslije toga" ostalo. Za epyc je Q1"sampling" ili "launch" (ne mogu se sad sjetit), a Q2 je "higher availability", što znači da bi desktop trebao iza toga. Također nijednom nije spomenut kvartal u kojem bi trebao izaći (barem ne zadnjih nekoliko mjeseci), a već je jesen. Tako da se bojim da bi se moglo odvući i do Q3 nagodinu, pogotovo ako se mora čekati red za 7nm

[Dottore]

Autor Smartic

Dobar deal je trenutno 1600X(1200 i kusur), ali probaj prvo vidjeti imaju li u Telebitu 2600 za 1345kn. B450/AM4 ploče će, po svemu sudeći, podržavati još minimalno 2 nadolazeće generacije.

Uuu, nisam o tome razmišljao. Hvala na osvrtu.
Isprva sam razmišljao odmah na 2700 ili 2700x i odjednom sinula ideja da uskoro izlazi noviji model sa 15 % bolji IPC. Zato sam mislio preći prvu generaciju dok ne dođe novi pa ih zamjenim.


@manuel
Očito, pratimo dalje. 7nm zvuči dobro ako je vjerovati po najavi rumora.

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