Da, nažalost s Intelom se nikad ne zna, a dokle god uz
najbolje performanse ikad, istovremeno najavljuju visoke taktove, koji pak za sobom povlače podjednako visoku potrošnju i zagrijavanje - pitanje je koliko je tu zapravo noviteta.
S druge strane pak, ovaj Tom lik već sad priča o tome da treba pričaketi Raptor Lake uz Zen 4 i 5, jer Alder Lake neće biti baš za svakoga, a prave stvari tek stižu, pa kupujte sad, samo ako baš trebate.
Frajer više ni sam ne zna za kojim vjetrom da trči, jer cijelo ovo vrijeme priča o Alder Lakeu kao dolasku novog Mesije, a sad kad je tu i recenzije stižu sljedeći tjedan -
e dajte da vam velim nešto.
Citiraj:
Intel- Analysts/Investor flub shows disconnect on Intel, Industry & challenges
Citiraj:
Whenever a stock drops 12% in one day there is some sort of major disconnect between the company and the street. Analysts should have able to figure out that capex wasn’t just going to go up 20% year on year and be enough to catch TSMC spending $25B a year, twice Intel. Its clear that Intel has to spend TSMC-like sums of CAPEX and then some more in order to catch TSMC. If we use EUV tool count as a proxy for spend ( which is a good approximation) they need to outspend TSMC now to make up for years of under investment and under buying.
TSMC does not work for free and will not give away its precious leading edge capacity to a company that wants to beat it, without extracting a pound of flesh. TSMC has Intel in a tough position and will squeeze for what its worth and Intel has no choice but to pay up otherwise TSMC will turn on the AMD floodgates. Becoming a foundry player is not just the $20B to build two fabs in Arizona(let alone fabs in Europe…) and fill them with equipment. Its hiring lots of people (let alone finding the talent) and building the infrastructure (or buying it) needed to service silicon customers. Something Intel wasn’t able to accomplish in the past. Building the two fabs and all associated foundry expenses for something that may not show revenue for years and take a long time to ramp will be a huge drain.
In the meantime renewed competition from AMD (whose product is being built in the same TSMC fabs as Intel) and others as well as emerging competition (like Apple, ARM, Google, Facebook etc…) will negatively impact revenues and pricing. Bottom line is Intel is caught in a longer term margin squeeze. The problem just got even worse as Intel is now stuck with “triple spending”. Spending (or gross margins loss) on TSMC, re-building their own fabs and now a third cost of building additional foundry capacity for outside customers. We don’t see how Intel avoids a financial hit.
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Izvor: SemiWiki
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