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The Exiled · 17.12.2020., 14:47

Citiraj:

Intel's manufacturing outlook for the future doesn't inspire confidence in successful competition

Citiraj:

10 nm in "full production" and "shipping for revenue" since late 2018. Charlie still doesn't think it's viable. Much more real than it once was though, but not good enough.
Superfin is unquestionably far better than base 10 nm. Better in just about every way. Yields are better, but still on the low side.
Not enough 10 nm capacity to handle the entire product stack yet. Charlie doesn't like Rocket Lake, considers the backport "painfully stupid". Will be huge and a power hog.
14 nm shortage caused by the fact that Intel had to bloat up die sizes.
Ice Lake delayed again due to a bug, but this is a good thing. Looking like it'll come mid-late Q2 to early Q3 (although Charlie originally said March + 1.5-2 month delay?).
Performance looks pretty poor. Akin to CL-SP actually - performance per socket remains the same but power rises. Core count for shipping parts dropped from 38 -> 36.
Ice Lake is disappointing. Sapphire Rapids is way better. Comes in Q2 22.
Once SPR fully rolls out and is fully sorted out it'll actually be pretty solid.
If both companies iterate perfectly on their roadmaps as planned (much easier on AMD's side right now), Intel can not catch up to AMD until late 2024 or early 2025.
AMD's biggest problem? Unsurprisingly - capacity.
7nm is significantly more delayed than the 6-12 months first claimed. PVC is in-hands basically now and it was the first 7nm product. Now it's on TSMC. Sometime December this year anyway.
Intel may not know how much of a delay we're looking at with 7.
Doesn't think Intel could sell fabs. Too many things problems
involved. Fabs would need to be evaluated for the buyers needs etc etc.
Intel are going to out-source CPUs, but what and where is still being debated internally. Decision will be made in Q1 between SS and TSMC for different products. Nothing is set in stone yet.
Intel are looking for a new CEO. There are multiple candidates, one has been shot down, 3 potential left. They are hoping to make the decision in Q1, probably after the Jan call. Does seem like Bob's going either way.
Question: Will Intel do anything else with the backported core? A: I hope not.
Intel won't outsource everything to TSMC because TSMC doesn't have the capacity. Intel grabbing capacity shouldn't take capacity away from AMD - TSMC should prioritise customers with long-term plans to stay with them.
There is a 10 nm desktop product coming (Alder Lake-S) but Charlie doubts there will be much capacity for it due to it being needed elsewhere.

Izvor: TechPowerUp i Notebookcheck

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