[Manuel Calavera]

With HDDs On The Ropes, Samsung Predicts SSD Price Collisions As NVMe Takes Over

The popular 256GB SSD capacity is already close to the price of a 1TB HDD. Samsung predicts that the price of a 256GB SSD will sink beneath 1TB HDDs in mid-2017, and 512GB will follow in 2020.

NVMe SSDs are taking over the SSD market at an astounding rate while pushing SATA to the wayside. NVMe SSDs accounted for only 3 million units in 2014 but have skyrocketed to 33 million units this year. This year was undoubtedly the "breakout" year for NVMe, but Samsung predicts that 2017 will tip the scales entirely in NVMe's favor with 64 million NVMe SSDs outweighing the 52 million SATA SSDs that will hit the market.

Surprisingly, Samsung expects NVMe to account for 111 million units in 2018, which dwarfs the expected output of 25 million SATA SSDs. The venerable SATA interface has hit a performance brick wall, and there is no plan for a new, faster revision. The lack of forward SATA movement will relegate it to the annals of history in the SSD market, though it will likely continue to thrive in the HDD market.

According to Samsung, it will account for half of the 40 million SSDs the industry is expected to ship this year into the retail SSD aftermarket.

3D NAND is much cheaper to produce than regular planar NAND, but many opine that Samsung isn't passing all of the savings to the consumer, because there hasn't been any serious competition. As more fabs start pumping out 3D NAND, we can expect pricing to plunge even further, which is good for everyone.