[McG]

Rusi su napisali još jedan odličan članak u kojem predviđaju razvoj računala, računalnih sustava, tehnike, tehnologije i jasno - modernog društva u sljedećem desetljeću. U svakom slučaju zanimljivo štivo.

Central Processing Units: More Functions, Lower Power

Microprocessors as we know them today are likely to disappear in ten, perhaps, a little more, years from now. Already in 2010 we do have central processing units with integrated graphics and some other features, a decade from now we are going to have solutions that are greatly more integrated. The multi-core processors appear to be developing rather quickly: the first dual-core chips emerged in 2003 and today we have eight or twelve-core microprocessors from Intel and AMD.

At present hardly anyone knows for sure what future CPUs will be like and a lot of important trends that can be extrapolated to the year 2020 will be unleashed along with the release of Haswell and post-Haswell microprocessors in 2013 and beyond. In fact, the example of AMD Bulldozer design - where processor consists of modules and two INT units share one FPU per module - shows that companies are trying hard to pack more execution units into their chips and are eager to cut down some other things. In general, Bulldozer's "hybrid" core approach may be a glimpse of the longer-term future of CPUs.

Graphics Processing Units: Prosperity or Extinction?

With the release of hybrid processing units with x86 and graphics engines inside the market of low-end and inexpensive mainstream graphics cards in general will inevitably shrink rather considerably, especially in the mobile segment, since both Intel Sandy Bridge and AMD Llano promise very high performance in video games and other GPU-accelerated applications.

Recently nVidia outlined its plans till 2013 - 2014 and we do know that ATi, graphics business unit of AMD, has plans for at least two more generations after the Radeon HD 6000. nVidia even outlined its design goals for the forthcoming Kepler and Maxwell architectures, it is not doubling gaming performance every year, but it is aggressive improvement of double precision floating point performance per watt, a clear indication that the company sees general-purpose and high-performance computing on GPUs something tremendously important.

For PC gamers continuous development of GPUs for the HPC market means that GPUs will not become a niche product, but will continue to exist and evolve even in 2020. Another reason why graphics processors should continue gaining graphics performance is inevitable increase of resolutions and inability of integrated graphics products to quickly gain performance to respond to demands of the consumers on the leading edge of progress.

Memory: Standard A Day Keeps Strangers Away

Commodity memory market is probably among the most predictable things in the technology industry. Manufacturers of dynamic random access memory (DRAM) just love standardization as it allows them to concentrate on efficient manufacturing and not on ensuring that their products actually work with certain controllers. Device makers love that too since they have a lot of sources for DRAM. This is something that is not going to change even in 2020.

As we do know, leading DRAM manufacturers will start commercial production of next-generation DDR4 memory in 2012. Actual mass transition to the new memory is projected to occur towards 2015, which means that by 2020 there will be DDR5 ramping up. As we also know, the 2133MHz - 4266MHz effective clock-speeds of DDR4 lead to change of topology of memory sub-system to point-to-point interconnect. As a result, DRAM manufacturers will need to increase capacities of memory chips by using multi-layer technique with through silicon via (TSV) technology.

Storage Systems: HDD vs. SSD vs. Cloud

With the ultimate evolution of the cloud computing in ten years from now the question will be not whether we will need local storage in general, but how much local storage we will need and how fast it should be. Ultimately, it is HDD vs. SSD vs. Cloud. Local storage will play a much less important role in 2020 compared to the role it plays today. Nowadays we keep the absolute majority of our own files on local hard drives and this is where we install our applications. In a decade from now the importance of cloud-based applications and storage will grow so considerably that this fact alone will redefine the market of PC storage much more than any evolution of technology.

Ten years ago everyone was satisfied with 128Kb/s MP3s and DivX movies. Today that level of quality is unacceptable. Physical media and large HDDs will still be in use by the consumers. Nonetheless, cloud storage will be needed to share photos, videos and other types of data that one wants to share. Without need to keep documents, product information, emails and other business-related things locally, the demand for storage in business PCs will either remain similar to today or will grow intangibly. Consequently, while workstations will require large local storage systems, most business PCs will not need large local storage devices.

Monitors: Ultra-High Definition Vs. Stereo-3D

The high-definition is here and while everyone continues to enjoy the high quality of movies, photographs and graphics user interfaces, the HD can no longer amaze or be considered as the next-generation. By the year 2020 the world will likely enjoy something that is now known as ultra high definition (UHD) and that has maximum resolution of 7680x4320 pixels (16:9).

Stereoscopic 3D technology is adopted very slowly these days. Wearing special glasses and sitting in a special position is definitely not something comfortable, especially amid the lack of content. The so-called autostereoscopic 3D screens (that do not require graphics) can certainly make a huge difference, but present auto-S3D technologies are far from perfect and it is unclear when proper technologies emerge. In 2020 displays are likely to get astonishing resolutions along with new types of panels. While stereo-3D with shutter glasses may become a feature found on the vast majority of consumer displays or TVs, it will hardly be the most important capability of future devices.

Input Technologies: Traditions and Innovations

Given the generally increasing amount of devices, in 2020 there will be a lot more ways to control PCs than there are today. When it comes to a traditional desktop or notebook, keyboard and mouse/touchpad have proved to be efficient and comfortable. But given the fact that almost all devices nowadays feature web-cameras, it is more than logical to incorporate basic recognition of gestures into the future personal computers.

In fact, one of the most important qualities of personal computers of 2020 will not be ability to offer different input technologies, but to recognize actual necessities based on environment and current activity. The best type of input is the lack of any special input from the end-user. Indeed, Intel is already working on context-aware computing and probably ten years down the road we will see the fruits of that work.

Izvor: X-Bit Labs